Artificial intelligence Open at last refresh
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?
GPT Astra 6.1+: HLE-Diamond Debut?
Provider end date; confirm observation window in the rules.
Contract resolution rules
This market resolves to "Yes" if the next OpenAI GPT Astra model (6.1+) added to Humanity's Last Exam results at agi.safe.ai has an HLE-Diamond Accuracy of 70% or higher at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date after it first appears. Otherwise, it resolves to "No".
Conditions for a winning outcome
The market resolves to "Yes" if: (1) a qualifying OpenAI model (version 6.1+ with "Astra" in name/identifier) is newly added to the HLE results; (2) its displayed HLE-Diamond Accuracy is at least 70% at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance on the site (defined as the earlier of chart display or first qualifying score publication); OR (3) if CAIS publishes a qualifying score (overall accuracy on full 1,000-question HLE-Diamond, no tools, reasoning setting "high") and the model has not been displayed on the chart by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day after that publication — in which case that score (rounded to one decimal) is used, and if multiple qualifying scores exist by that time, the highest is used. If multiple qualifying models are added on the same calendar date (ET), the highest accuracy is used; models added on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance are not considered.
Exclusions and exceptions
The market resolves to "No" if: (1) no qualifying model is added by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; (2) the qualifying model's HLE-Diamond Accuracy is below 70%; (3) the model is removed and not re-added before the check; (4) the model is GPT-6 Astra (any rollout, mode, or snapshot), tier-labeled models (e.g., GPT-5.6 Sol/Terra/Luna and successors), or task-specific lines (e.g., GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak, Codex, GPT Image, Realtime); (5) the score is from original HLE, HLE-Rolling, "reasoning max," "with tools," partition scores, API/data/page source, Scale AI leaderboards, other evaluators, or the developer, or where there is reasonable doubt it meets conditions; (6) the resolution source is unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears (resolving at first subsequent availability or ultimately "No"). If CAIS/Resolution Source publishes clearly erroneous data, the market may remain open up to 7 calendar days (ET) for correction; if corrected within that period the corrected value is used, otherwise Polymarket issues a Clarification.
Timing & resolution
Chart-value check: 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the model's first appearance on the site. Qualifying-score check: 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day after first qualifying score publication. Hard deadline: June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Ambiguities in the rules
The source does not explicitly address whether a model whose name includes both "Astra" and a tier label (e.g., "GPT-6.1 Astra Sol") qualifies, since "Astra" models are included but tier-labeled models and their successors are excluded. This conflict is not resolved by the source text. The tier-labeled model exclusion is defined by model identifier patterns (e.g., GPT-5.6 Sol/Terra/Luna), and it is unclear whether a 6.1+ model bearing both an Astra designation and a tier-style suffix would fall under both rules.
AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.09 / 0.1. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-23T17:00:10+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T16:58:05.285071Z
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