INVESTMENT THESES. MEASURABLE OUTCOMES.
Prediction Market Screener
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Discover the events behind your thesis—from company milestones to geopolitical turning points.
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Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
THE SCREENER
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| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $2.25T and $2.5T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 9.8% | 602.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $5.7k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 18.7% | 308.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $5.6k | ↗ |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 77.3% | 24.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $5.4k | ↗ |
| Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 48.2% | 84.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $5.3k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 27.3% | 196.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $5.3k | ↗ |
| Fed rate cut by June 2027 meeting? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 34.5% | 348.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 8 Jul 2027 | $4.6k | ↗ |
| Will Discord’s market cap be less than $5B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 6.0% | 955.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $4.5k | ↗ |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 30.5% | 170.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $4.3k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 1.8% | 2,793.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $3.7k | ↗ |
| Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 10.2% | 576.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $3.6k | ↗ |
| Will Payward announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? Financial health · Polymarket | Yes | 13.5% | 148.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2029 | $3.6k | ↗ |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 74.0% | 28.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $3.5k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 21.3% | 264.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $3.5k | ↗ |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2.75T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 6.5% | 887.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $3.4k | ↗ |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2027? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 1.0% | 4,842.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $3.4k | ↗ |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2027? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 3.4% | 1,598.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $3.2k | ↗ |
| Will Coinbase be first to list tokenized stocks in the US? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 16.8% | 345.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $3.2k | ↗ |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 5.25% at the end of 2027? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 3.1% | 1,760.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $3.1k | ↗ |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥6.0% at the end of 2027? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 0.2% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $3.1k | ↗ |
| Will Discord’s market cap be between $5B and $8B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 2.1% | 2,443.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $3.0k | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
GO BEYOND THE NUMBER
The condition matters
as much as the price.
Anthropic IPO
Offering price or first-day close? Know which question you’re answering.
Explore the contracts ↗02 / CORPORATE MILESTONESOpenAI IPO
Timing, valuation and no-IPO outcomes—each with its own rules.
Explore the contracts ↗03 / INVESTOR TOOLKITAnnualized, explained
Compare holding periods without confusing potential payoff with expected return.
Understand the calculation ↗