INVESTMENT THESES. MEASURABLE OUTCOMES.
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Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
THE SCREENER
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| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 10.5% | 557.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $8.9k | ↗ |
| AI data center in space by December 31, 2027? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 23.5% | 236.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $8.9k | ↗ |
| Fed rate cut by July 2027 meeting? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 51.5% | 130.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 8 Aug 2027 | $8.8k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 23.5% | 236.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $8.7k | ↗ |
| Will the Fed Hike-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 10.5% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 27 Jan 2027 | $7.8k | ↗ |
| France defaults on debt by December 31, 2027? Financial health · Polymarket | Yes | 5.0% | 1,129.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $7.8k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 15.5% | 376.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $7.5k | ↗ |
| Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 27.5% | 194.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $7.5k | ↗ |
| Will Payward announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? Financial health · Polymarket | Yes | 8.5% | 688.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $7.4k | ↗ |
| Fed rate cut by January 2027 meeting? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 6.6% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 8 Feb 2027 | $7.3k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $2.25T and $2.5T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 4.7% | 1,206.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $7.3k | ↗ |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 2.1% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 27 Jan 2027 | $7.1k | ↗ |
| Will the Fed Hike-Hike-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 3.7% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 27 Jan 2027 | $7.0k | ↗ |
| Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 5.5% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 27 Jan 2027 | $6.9k | ↗ |
| Will the Fed Hike-Pause-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 2.4% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 27 Jan 2027 | $6.9k | ↗ |
| Will the Fed Hike-Pause-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 1.2% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 27 Jan 2027 | $6.8k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's public ticker be $LLM? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 2.3% | 2,256.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $6.6k | ↗ |
| Fed rate cut by April 2027 meeting? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 31.5% | 743.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 8 May 2027 | $6.5k | ↗ |
| Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 9.3% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 27 Jan 2027 | $6.3k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 18.7% | 308.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $6.1k | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
GO BEYOND THE NUMBER
The condition matters
as much as the price.
Anthropic IPO
Offering price or first-day close? Know which question you’re answering.
Explore the contracts ↗02 / CORPORATE MILESTONESOpenAI IPO
Timing, valuation and no-IPO outcomes—each with its own rules.
Explore the contracts ↗03 / INVESTOR TOOLKITAnnualized, explained
Compare holding periods without confusing potential payoff with expected return.
Understand the calculation ↗