INVESTMENT THESES. MEASURABLE OUTCOMES.
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Discover the events behind your thesis—from company milestones to geopolitical turning points.
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Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
THE SCREENER
Find your next research question.
| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 1.0% | 4,633.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $11.0k | ↗ |
| Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Ukraine by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 0.1% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $10.9k | ↗ |
| Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Brazil by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 0.4% | 9,139.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $10.9k | ↗ |
| Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Slovakia by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 0.4% | 9,139.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $10.9k | ↗ |
| Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Egypt by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 0.4% | 9,139.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $10.8k | ↗ |
| Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in South Africa by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 0.4% | 9,139.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $10.8k | ↗ |
| Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Azerbaijan by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 0.4% | 9,139.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $10.8k | ↗ |
| Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Serbia by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 0.4% | 9,139.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $10.8k | ↗ |
| Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Kazakhstan by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 0.4% | 9,139.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $10.8k | ↗ |
| Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Hungary by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 0.5% | 8,359.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $10.8k | ↗ |
| Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in another Middle East/North Africa country by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 0.5% | 7,710.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $10.8k | ↗ |
| Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Austria by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 0.4% | 9,139.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $10.7k | ↗ |
| Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Germany by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 1.0% | 4,841.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $10.7k | ↗ |
| Will Hesai be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 18.0% | 1,101.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $10.6k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.0T and $1.25T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 5.7% | 6,366.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $10.2k | ↗ |
| Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 28.0% | 190.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $10.1k | ↗ |
| Fed rate cut by March 2027 meeting? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 13.0% | 8,375.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 8 Apr 2027 | $10.0k | ↗ |
| Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 51.0% | 1,141.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 27 Jan 2027 | $9.9k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 4.1% | 1,366.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $9.5k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.9% | 5,323.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $9.1k | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
GO BEYOND THE NUMBER
The condition matters
as much as the price.
Anthropic IPO
Offering price or first-day close? Know which question you’re answering.
Explore the contracts ↗02 / CORPORATE MILESTONESOpenAI IPO
Timing, valuation and no-IPO outcomes—each with its own rules.
Explore the contracts ↗03 / INVESTOR TOOLKITAnnualized, explained
Compare holding periods without confusing potential payoff with expected return.
Understand the calculation ↗