INVESTMENT THESES. MEASURABLE OUTCOMES.
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Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
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| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $3T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 4.1% | 1,367.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $3.1k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $2.00T and $2.25T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 5.0% | 1,140.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $3.1k | ↗ |
| Will Discord’s market cap be between $5B and $8B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 2.1% | 2,443.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $3.0k | ↗ |
| SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 73.5% | 29.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $3.0k | ↗ |
| Will Coinbase be first to list tokenized stocks in the US? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 16.8% | 346.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $2.9k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 37.0% | 130.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $2.8k | ↗ |
| Base iPhone 18 released by April 30, 2027? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 88.0% | 27.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 May 2027 | $2.7k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $2.25T and $2.50T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 2.4% | 2,174.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $2.6k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.50T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 7.4% | 785.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $2.6k | ↗ |
| Will Discord’s market cap be between $8B and $11B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 5.0% | 1,129.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $2.6k | ↗ |
| Will Discord’s market cap be between $11B and $14B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 19.9% | 287.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $2.5k | ↗ |
| Will Robinhood be first to list tokenized stocks in the US? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 36.5% | 132.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $2.5k | ↗ |
| Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $60? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 98.2% | 2.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $2.5k | ↗ |
| Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.3% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $2.4k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be less than $1.25T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 1.0% | 4,842.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $2.4k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $AAI? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 3.2% | 1,687.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $2.4k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be $2.50T or more? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 1.2% | 4,111.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $2.3k | ↗ |
| Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by June 30, 2027? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 87.2% | 22.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $2.3k | ↗ |
| Will Discord’s market cap be $20B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 4.9% | 1,161.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $2.2k | ↗ |
| Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 97.8% | 3.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $2.2k | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
GO BEYOND THE NUMBER
The condition matters
as much as the price.
Anthropic IPO
Offering price or first-day close? Know which question you’re answering.
Explore the contracts ↗02 / CORPORATE MILESTONESOpenAI IPO
Timing, valuation and no-IPO outcomes—each with its own rules.
Explore the contracts ↗03 / INVESTOR TOOLKITAnnualized, explained
Compare holding periods without confusing potential payoff with expected return.
Understand the calculation ↗