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Original resolution rules on each contract
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| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $60 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 6.0% | 6,018.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $805 | ↗ |
| OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize Solution? Company milestones · Polymarket | OpenAI | 58.0% | 58.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $771 | ↗ |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 15.0% | 1,502.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $751 | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's public ticker be $OA? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 26.1% | 209.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $665 | ↗ |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 22.5% | 785.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $580 | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's public ticker be $OAI? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 42.0% | 107.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $551 | ↗ |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 45.5% | 216.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $426 | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's public ticker be $AAGI? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 20.3% | 283.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $425 | ↗ |
| Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 15.0% | 1,502.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $425 | ↗ |
| Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 31.0% | 454.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $393 | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's public ticker be $CGPT? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 21.9% | 259.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $388 | ↗ |
| OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement? Company milestones · Polymarket | OpenAI | 45.0% | 95.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $376 | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's public ticker be $AIX? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 21.0% | 272.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $368 | ↗ |
| Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 56.0% | 62.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $331 | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI raise at least $100B in its IPO? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 10.5% | 566.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $323 | ↗ |
| SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | SpaceX | 76.4% | 25.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $322 | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI raise less than $30B in its IPO? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 36.7% | 132.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $254 | ↗ |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 35.5% | 354.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $150 | ↗ |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $2T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 20.0% | 287.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $91 | ↗ |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 38.5% | 303.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $80 | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
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