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Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?
Next GPT Terra Model (5.7+): Text Arena Debut?
Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.
Contract resolution rules
Predicts whether the next OpenAI GPT Terra model (5.7+) on Arena.AI's Text Arena Overall leaderboard scores at least 1460 within one day of first appearing, by June 30, 2027.
Conditions for a winning outcome
A model qualifies if its name includes "GPT" and "Terra" with version 5.7+, is newly added to the Text Arena Overall (style control off) leaderboard without an "AutoEval" label, and its Score column value at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar day after first appearing is at least 1460. Fine-tunes, modes, and restricted-access variants of an existing version do not qualify. If multiple models are added the same calendar day (ET), the highest-scoring model is used; models added on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance are not considered. Prior public availability, beta status, or other prior access does not disqualify a model.
Exclusions and exceptions
The market resolves to "No" if no qualifying OpenAI GPT Terra 5.7+ model appears on the leaderboard by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; if the qualifying model is removed and not re-added by the resolution time; if the leaderboard is unavailable for seven days after the model's first appearance; or if the model's score is below 1460. Models named without "Terra" or below version 5.7, AutoEval-marked entries, and fine-tunes/modes/restricted-access variants are excluded. Models added on the calendar date following the qualifying model's first appearance are also not considered.
Timing & resolution
The resolution deadline is 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the qualifying model's first leaderboard appearance, but no later than June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (equivalent to 2027-07-01 03:59 UTC). If the leaderboard source is unavailable at the initial deadline, the first subsequent available score is used, up to seven days after first appearance. If still unavailable or no qualifying model appears by the cutoff, the market resolves "No."
Ambiguities in the rules
The source does not define a tiebreaker when multiple same-day additions share the highest score. Otherwise, the source is sufficiently clear for an investor to rely on alongside this explanation.
AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.27 / 0.35. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-24T13:00:10+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-24T12:58:38.586118Z
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