InvestorOdds Share feedback ↗

Artificial intelligence Open at last refresh

Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?

Next GPT Terra Model (5.7+): Text Arena Debut?

Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.

Provider end date 1 Jul 2027Liquidity $393Lifetime volume $2.7kSource Polymarket

Contract resolution rules

AI-assisted explanation

Predicts whether the next OpenAI GPT Terra model (5.7+) on Arena.AI's Text Arena Overall leaderboard scores at least 1460 within one day of first appearing, by June 30, 2027.

Conditions for a winning outcome

A model qualifies if its name includes "GPT" and "Terra" with version 5.7+, is newly added to the Text Arena Overall (style control off) leaderboard without an "AutoEval" label, and its Score column value at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar day after first appearing is at least 1460. Fine-tunes, modes, and restricted-access variants of an existing version do not qualify. If multiple models are added the same calendar day (ET), the highest-scoring model is used; models added on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance are not considered. Prior public availability, beta status, or other prior access does not disqualify a model.

Exclusions and exceptions

The market resolves to "No" if no qualifying OpenAI GPT Terra 5.7+ model appears on the leaderboard by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; if the qualifying model is removed and not re-added by the resolution time; if the leaderboard is unavailable for seven days after the model's first appearance; or if the model's score is below 1460. Models named without "Terra" or below version 5.7, AutoEval-marked entries, and fine-tunes/modes/restricted-access variants are excluded. Models added on the calendar date following the qualifying model's first appearance are also not considered.

Timing & resolution

The resolution deadline is 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the qualifying model's first leaderboard appearance, but no later than June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (equivalent to 2027-07-01 03:59 UTC). If the leaderboard source is unavailable at the initial deadline, the first subsequent available score is used, up to seven days after first appearance. If still unavailable or no qualifying model appears by the cutoff, the market resolves "No."

Ambiguities in the rules

The source does not define a tiebreaker when multiple same-day additions share the highest score. Otherwise, the source is sufficiently clear for an investor to rely on alongside this explanation.

AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.

Original resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI GPT Terra model (5.7+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Terra" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Terra would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Terra or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Terra" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Terra, GPT-5.6 Sol, or GPT-5.6 Luna, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Outcome prices and implied probabilities

Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.

Yes31.0%
31.00¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout
No69.0%
69.00¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.27 / 0.35. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.

Fetched 2026-10-24T13:00:10+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-24T12:58:38.586118Z

Event contracts and stock returns

A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.

Explore more artificial intelligence →