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3 months remainingPolymarket data · refreshed every 15 minutes
Original resolution rules on each contract
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| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Anthropic | 75.0% | 14.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2029 | $1.1k | ↗ |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $1.75T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 68.0% | 38.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.1k | ↗ |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 60% or higher? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 29.5% | 496.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $967 | ↗ |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 72.5% | 60.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $796 | ↗ |
| OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize Solution? Company milestones · Polymarket | OpenAI | 58.0% | 58.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $771 | ↗ |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 88.0% | 20.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $690 | ↗ |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 28.5% | 526.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $560 | ↗ |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 34.5% | 144.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $527 | ↗ |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 50% or higher? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 90.9% | 15.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $457 | ↗ |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 84.5% | 27.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $428 | ↗ |
| OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement? Company milestones · Polymarket | OpenAI | 45.0% | 95.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $376 | ↗ |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 64.0% | 92.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $367 | ↗ |
| Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by January 31, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 40.0% | 2,787.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 31 Jan 2027 | $230 | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic list on another exchange? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 8.4% | 704.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $206 | ↗ |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1550 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 18.0% | 1,127.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $159 | ↗ |
| Next Claude Haiku (5.6+) released by January 31, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 60.0% | 549.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Feb 2027 | $103 | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic list on the NYSE? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 43.1% | 103.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $103 | ↗ |
| Will Claude Opus 5.6+ debut at an output token price of at least $20 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 67.5% | 77.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $83 | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic list on the NASDAQ? Stocks & indices · Polymarket | Yes | 90.0% | 9.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $66 | ↗ |
| Will Claude Opus 5.6+ debut at an output token price of at least $15 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 84.0% | 29.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $36 | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
IPO contracts and
return calculations
Anthropic IPO predictions
Compare IPO deadlines and valuation conditions in the available Anthropic contracts.
View Anthropic IPO contracts ↗OpenAI IPO predictions
Check the listing deadline, valuation measure and treatment of a delayed IPO.
View OpenAI IPO contracts ↗Annualized return calculation
See how entry price, costs and payout timing affect the return if a contract wins.
Read the return methodology ↗