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Original resolution rules on each contract
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| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next GPT Image Model (2.6+) released by January 31, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 49.5% | 1,220.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 31 Jan 2027 | $28 | ↗ |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 20.5% | 279.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $79 | ↗ |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $2T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 20.0% | 287.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $92 | ↗ |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 35.5% | 354.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $162 | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI raise less than $30B in its IPO? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 38.3% | 124.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $253 | ↗ |
| SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | SpaceX | 76.4% | 25.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $323 | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI raise at least $100B in its IPO? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 10.5% | 566.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $323 | ↗ |
| Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 55.0% | 65.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $327 | ↗ |
| Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 29.5% | 496.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $368 | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's public ticker be $AIX? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 21.4% | 266.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $382 | ↗ |
| OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement? Company milestones · Polymarket | OpenAI | 45.0% | 95.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $395 | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's public ticker be $AAGI? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 20.8% | 274.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $455 | ↗ |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 42.0% | 255.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $478 | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's public ticker be $OAI? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 42.0% | 107.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $529 | ↗ |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 22.5% | 785.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $544 | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's public ticker be $OA? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 21.8% | 260.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $554 | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's public ticker be $CGPT? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 23.7% | 236.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $583 | ↗ |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 15.0% | 1,502.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $682 | ↗ |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1430 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 77.0% | 46.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $798 | ↗ |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $60 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 6.0% | 6,017.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $805 | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
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