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3 months remainingPolymarket data · refreshed every 15 minutes
Original resolution rules on each contract
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| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Claude Opus 5.6+ debut at an output token price of at least $15 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 84.0% | 29.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $39 | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic list on the NASDAQ? Stocks & indices · Polymarket | Yes | 90.0% | 9.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $66 | ↗ |
| Will Claude Opus 5.6+ debut at an output token price of at least $20 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 69.0% | 72.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $79 | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic list on the NYSE? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 43.5% | 101.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $96 | ↗ |
| Next Claude Haiku (5.6+) released by January 31, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 60.0% | 549.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Feb 2027 | $103 | ↗ |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1550 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 20.0% | 952.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $143 | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic list on another exchange? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 8.4% | 704.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $206 | ↗ |
| Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by January 31, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 40.5% | 2,657.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 31 Jan 2027 | $224 | ↗ |
| Will Claude Opus 5.6+ debut at an output token price of at least $30 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 6.8% | 4,994.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $294 | ↗ |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 64.0% | 92.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $393 | ↗ |
| OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement? Company milestones · Polymarket | OpenAI | 45.0% | 95.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $395 | ↗ |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 84.0% | 29.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $432 | ↗ |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 50% or higher? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 90.9% | 15.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $457 | ↗ |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 28.5% | 526.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $556 | ↗ |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 88.0% | 20.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $562 | ↗ |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 60% or higher? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 29.5% | 496.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $694 | ↗ |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 72.0% | 61.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $754 | ↗ |
| OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize Solution? Company milestones · Polymarket | OpenAI | 58.0% | 58.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $845 | ↗ |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $1.75T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 68.0% | 38.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $877 | ↗ |
| Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 49.0% | 183.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $914 | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
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