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Original resolution rules on each contract
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| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI's public ticker be $OA? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 26.5% | 205.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $481 | ↗ |
| Next Kimi K model (3.2+) released by February 28, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 68.5% | 195.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Mar 2027 | $478 | ↗ |
| Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $50B and $75B at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 9.0% | 655.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $476 | ↗ |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 38.0% | 311.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $456 | ↗ |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 50% or higher? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 90.8% | 15.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $450 | ↗ |
| Will Bloomberg IPO by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 38.5% | 123.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $450 | ↗ |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 84.0% | 29.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $438 | ↗ |
| Next Muse Wonder (1.1+) released by January 31, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 70.0% | 269.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Feb 2027 | $435 | ↗ |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 64.0% | 92.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $378 | ↗ |
| OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement? Company milestones · Polymarket | OpenAI | 45.0% | 95.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $369 | ↗ |
| Will Perplexity’s market cap be less than $20B at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 7.4% | 800.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $365 | ↗ |
| Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 22.0% | 815.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $360 | ↗ |
| Next Gemini Argon released by January 31, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 48.5% | 1,317.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Feb 2027 | $341 | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's public ticker be $AIX? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 21.9% | 259.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $333 | ↗ |
| Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 55.0% | 65.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $332 | ↗ |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 54.0% | 146.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $327 | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI raise at least $100B in its IPO? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 10.5% | 566.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $323 | ↗ |
| Will Bloomberg IPO by March 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 15.0% | 7,780.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Apr 2027 | $322 | ↗ |
| SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | SpaceX | 77.4% | 24.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $301 | ↗ |
| Will Kimi (Moonshot AI) IPO by March 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 22.0% | 3,163.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Apr 2027 | $284 | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
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