Yes22.5%
IPOs & valuations Open at last refresh
Will Kimi (Moonshot AI) IPO by March 31, 2027?
Kimi (Moonshot AI) IPO by...?
Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.
Contract resolution rules
Resolves to Yes if Moonshot AI completes an IPO by 11:59 PM ET on March 31, 2027, confirmed by official announcements or credible news. Otherwise No. Acquisition by a public company immediately resolves to No.
Conditions for a winning outcome
Yes if Moonshot AI completes its first public stock sale on any recognized stock exchange by the deadline, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The deadline is 11:59 PM ET on March 31, 2027, which corresponds to 03:59:00 UTC on April 1, 2027.
Exclusions and exceptions
No if no IPO is completed by the deadline, or if Moonshot AI is acquired by an already-public company before the deadline (immediate resolution to No). The contract does not require the IPO to be announced or completed after the deadline; only completion by the deadline matters.
Timing & resolution
11:59 PM ET on March 31, 2027, equivalent to 03:59:00 UTC on April 1, 2027. The provider end date is 2027-04-01T03:59:00Z.
Ambiguities in the rules
No concrete ambiguities. The rules clearly define the event, deadline, resolution sources, and the acquisition exception. The equivalence of ET and UTC timestamps is treated as the same deadline, not an ambiguity.
AI-assisted explanation reviewed against this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI, the developer of Kimi, completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by Moonshot AI to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
If Moonshot AI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
No77.5%
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.13 / 0.32. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-22T17:45:07+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-22T17:44:59.326333Z
Event contracts and stock returns
A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.
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