Next Muse Wonder (1.1+) released by January 31, 2027?
Next Muse Wonder (1.1+) released by...?
Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.
Provider end date 1 Feb 2027Liquidity $458Lifetime volume $1.3kSource Polymarket
Contract resolution rules
Original terms
A plain-language explanation is not available for these terms yet. The full provider wording is shown below.
Original resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta's next Muse Wonder model (1.1+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Wonder" and be designated as version 1.1 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.1 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Wonder (muse-wonder-1.0) or Muse Wonder Full (muse-wonder-full-1.0) would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Wonder 2, while models whose name does not include "Wonder," such as Muse Spark or Muse Glimmer models, or which retain a version designation of 1.0 or below, such as Muse Wonder and Muse Wonder Full (both released October 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of either, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
Yes70.5%
70.50¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout
No29.5%
29.50¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.69 / 0.72. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.