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Original resolution rules on each contract
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| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI raise less than $30B in its IPO? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 36.7% | 132.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $254 | ↗ |
| Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 40.5% | 275.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 30 Jun 2027 | $294 | ↗ |
| SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | SpaceX | 76.4% | 25.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $322 | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI raise at least $100B in its IPO? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 10.5% | 566.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $323 | ↗ |
| Next Kimi K model (3.2+) released by February 28, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 68.5% | 195.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Mar 2027 | $328 | ↗ |
| Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 56.0% | 62.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $331 | ↗ |
| Next Gemini Argon released by January 31, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 43.5% | 2,008.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Feb 2027 | $340 | ↗ |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 64.0% | 92.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $367 | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's public ticker be $AIX? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 21.0% | 272.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $368 | ↗ |
| Will Bloomberg IPO by March 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 15.0% | 7,768.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Apr 2027 | $370 | ↗ |
| OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement? Company milestones · Polymarket | OpenAI | 45.0% | 95.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $376 | ↗ |
| Will Perplexity’s market cap be less than $20B at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 7.4% | 799.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $387 | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's public ticker be $CGPT? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 21.9% | 259.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $388 | ↗ |
| Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 31.0% | 454.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $393 | ↗ |
| Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 15.0% | 1,502.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $425 | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's public ticker be $AAGI? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 20.3% | 283.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $425 | ↗ |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 45.5% | 216.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $426 | ↗ |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 84.5% | 27.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $428 | ↗ |
| Will Bloomberg IPO by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 38.5% | 123.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $450 | ↗ |
| Next Muse Wonder (1.1+) released by January 31, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 70.5% | 259.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Feb 2027 | $452 | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
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