INVESTMENT THESES. MEASURABLE OUTCOMES.
Anthropic IPO odds & valuation predictions
Explore the available contracts, separate the outcomes and read what actually qualifies.
↗Research the rules.
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
IPO timing, offering valuation and first-day market cap are different questions. A “no IPO” outcome can change how a valuation bracket settles. Read each contract’s rules; market-cap estimates alone do not establish an IPO share price.
THE SCREENER
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| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Citigroup or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.6% | 7,159.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.8k | ↗ |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $1.75T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 69.5% | 35.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.6k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 37.5% | 127.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.5k | ↗ |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $1.5T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 88.3% | 11.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.5k | ↗ |
| Will Deutsche Bank or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.1% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.4k | ↗ |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2.5T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 9.5% | 618.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.4k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 32.5% | 156.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.2k | ↗ |
| Anthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Anthropic | 74.5% | 14.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2029 | $1.1k | ↗ |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2.25T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 18.0% | 320.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.0k | ↗ |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 41.5% | 108.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $950 | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ARPC? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 0.6% | 7,159.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $853 | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $APBC? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 5.1% | 1,099.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $809 | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANAI? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 0.7% | 6,280.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $802 | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 2.9% | 1,812.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $739 | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $CLD? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 0.8% | 5,922.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $731 | ↗ |
| OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize Solution? Company milestones · Polymarket | OpenAI | 58.0% | 57.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $636 | ↗ |
| OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement? Company milestones · Polymarket | OpenAI | 46.5% | 89.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $606 | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $CLAU? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 0.4% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $592 | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $CLDE? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 5.6% | 1,018.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $434 | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic list on another exchange? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 4.0% | 1,382.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $335 | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
GO BEYOND THE NUMBER
The condition matters
as much as the price.
Anthropic IPO
Offering price or first-day close? Know which question you’re answering.
Explore the contracts ↗02 / CORPORATE MILESTONESOpenAI IPO
Timing, valuation and no-IPO outcomes—each with its own rules.
Explore the contracts ↗03 / INVESTOR TOOLKITAnnualized, explained
Compare holding periods without confusing potential payoff with expected return.
Understand the calculation ↗