INVESTMENT THESES. MEASURABLE OUTCOMES.
Anthropic IPO odds & valuation predictions
Explore the available contracts, separate the outcomes and read what actually qualifies.
↗Research the rules.
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
IPO timing, offering valuation and first-day market cap are different questions. A “no IPO” outcome can change how a valuation bracket settles. Read each contract’s rules; market-cap estimates alone do not establish an IPO share price.
THE SCREENER
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| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 22.9% | 243.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $8.5k | ↗ |
| Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 10.7% | 550.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $4.5k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 21.3% | 264.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $3.8k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 44.2% | 98.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $3.6k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.50T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 7.0% | 827.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $3.1k | ↗ |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $3T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 5.6% | 1,026.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $3.1k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $2.00T and $2.25T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 6.1% | 947.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $2.6k | ↗ |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2.75T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 6.5% | 886.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $2.6k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $AAI? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 3.1% | 1,759.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $2.5k | ↗ |
| Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.3% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $2.4k | ↗ |
| Will Barclays or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.6% | 7,159.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $2.1k | ↗ |
| Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 88.0% | 11.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $2.1k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 29.5% | 178.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $2.1k | ↗ |
| Will Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.1% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $2.1k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be less than $1.25T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 1.0% | 4,840.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $2.0k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $2.25T and $2.50T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 2.4% | 2,213.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.9k | ↗ |
| Dario Amodei out as Anthropic CEO before IPO? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 4.8% | 1,184.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 31 Dec 2027 | $1.9k | ↗ |
| Will UBS or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.1% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.9k | ↗ |
| Will Citigroup or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.6% | 7,159.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.8k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be $2.50T or more? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 1.1% | 4,443.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.8k | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
GO BEYOND THE NUMBER
The condition matters
as much as the price.
Anthropic IPO
Offering price or first-day close? Know which question you’re answering.
Explore the contracts ↗02 / CORPORATE MILESTONESOpenAI IPO
Timing, valuation and no-IPO outcomes—each with its own rules.
Explore the contracts ↗03 / INVESTOR TOOLKITAnnualized, explained
Compare holding periods without confusing potential payoff with expected return.
Understand the calculation ↗