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Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
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| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 1.9% | 2,664.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $10.2k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 43.2% | 102.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $10.0k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 3.3% | 1,641.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $9.3k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.0T and $1.25T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 5.6% | 6,448.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $9.3k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI IPO by March 31 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 21.5% | 3,179.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Apr 2027 | $9.3k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 4.0% | 1,382.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $9.0k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.9% | 5,322.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $8.7k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 22.9% | 243.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $8.5k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 10.5% | 557.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $7.9k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 15.0% | 389.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $7.8k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 18.6% | 309.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $6.3k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $2.0T and $2.25T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 9.8% | 599.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $6.1k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 26.7% | 202.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $5.9k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $2.25T and $2.5T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 4.7% | 1,194.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $5.9k | ↗ |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 77.4% | 24.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $5.4k | ↗ |
| Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 48.2% | 84.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $4.9k | ↗ |
| Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 10.7% | 550.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $4.5k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 1.8% | 2,792.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $4.1k | ↗ |
| Will Discord’s market cap be less than $5B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 5.9% | 962.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $4.1k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 44.2% | 98.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $3.6k | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
GO BEYOND THE NUMBER
The condition matters
as much as the price.
Anthropic IPO
Offering price or first-day close? Know which question you’re answering.
Explore the contracts ↗02 / CORPORATE MILESTONESOpenAI IPO
Timing, valuation and no-IPO outcomes—each with its own rules.
Explore the contracts ↗03 / INVESTOR TOOLKITAnnualized, explained
Compare holding periods without confusing potential payoff with expected return.
Understand the calculation ↗