INVESTMENT THESES. MEASURABLE OUTCOMES.
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Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
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| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 4.7% | 1,206.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $15.9k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 95.7% | 3.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $15.7k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in June 2027 (ET)? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.7% | 6,279.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $15.0k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2027 (ET)? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.4% | 9,136.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $14.6k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 1.9% | 2,664.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $14.5k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2027 (ET)? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.4% | 9,136.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $14.3k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in May 2027 (ET)? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 1.1% | 4,442.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $14.0k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in December 2027 (ET)? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.4% | 9,136.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $14.0k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 15.8% | 370.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $13.8k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in September 2027 (ET)? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.4% | 9,136.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $13.8k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in January 2027 (ET)? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 11.5% | 511.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $13.6k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in August 2027 (ET)? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.4% | 9,136.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $13.6k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in February 2027 (ET)? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 1.4% | 3,470.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $13.3k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in July 2027 (ET)? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.5% | 7,707.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $13.2k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 60.0% | 53.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $12.9k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in March 2027 (ET)? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 1.1% | 4,269.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $12.8k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in April 2027 (ET)? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 1.6% | 3,092.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $12.6k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.0T and $1.25T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 5.6% | 6,447.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $11.4k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 5.5% | 1,035.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $11.3k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 1.9% | 2,664.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $10.8k | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
GO BEYOND THE NUMBER
The condition matters
as much as the price.
Anthropic IPO
Offering price or first-day close? Know which question you’re answering.
Explore the contracts ↗02 / CORPORATE MILESTONESOpenAI IPO
Timing, valuation and no-IPO outcomes—each with its own rules.
Explore the contracts ↗03 / INVESTOR TOOLKITAnnualized, explained
Compare holding periods without confusing potential payoff with expected return.
Understand the calculation ↗