INVESTMENT THESES. MEASURABLE OUTCOMES.
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Discover the events behind your thesis—from company milestones to geopolitical turning points.
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Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
THE SCREENER
Find your next research question.
| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will CXMT be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 18.5% | 1,054.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $19.8k | ↗ |
| Will DeepSeek be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 19.5% | 969.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $19.8k | ↗ |
| Will Warsh be out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2027? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 9.5% | 2,935.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $19.1k | ↗ |
| Will CATL be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 20.0% | 931.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $19.0k | ↗ |
| Will Xiaomi be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 20.5% | 895.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $18.0k | ↗ |
| Will ByteDance be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 16.5% | 1,263.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $17.1k | ↗ |
| Will Moonshot AI be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 16.5% | 1,263.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $15.6k | ↗ |
| Will Tencent be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 13.5% | 1,723.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $15.2k | ↗ |
| Will DJI be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 10.5% | 2,525.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $15.1k | ↗ |
| Will BYD be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 13.0% | 1,826.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $14.8k | ↗ |
| Will YMTC be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 12.5% | 1,938.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $13.2k | ↗ |
| Will Baidu be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 15.0% | 1,465.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $13.0k | ↗ |
| Will Unitree be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 17.0% | 1,205.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $12.8k | ↗ |
| Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 20.5% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 27 Jan 2027 | $12.1k | ↗ |
| Will Alibaba be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 13.5% | 1,723.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $11.3k | ↗ |
| Will Hesai be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 18.0% | 1,101.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $10.5k | ↗ |
| Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 51.0% | 1,141.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 27 Jan 2027 | $10.1k | ↗ |
| AI data center in space by December 31, 2027? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 23.5% | 236.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $9.2k | ↗ |
| Will the Fed Hike-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 10.5% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 27 Jan 2027 | $8.4k | ↗ |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 2.2% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 27 Jan 2027 | $7.9k | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
GO BEYOND THE NUMBER
The condition matters
as much as the price.
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Offering price or first-day close? Know which question you’re answering.
Explore the contracts ↗02 / CORPORATE MILESTONESOpenAI IPO
Timing, valuation and no-IPO outcomes—each with its own rules.
Explore the contracts ↗03 / INVESTOR TOOLKITAnnualized, explained
Compare holding periods without confusing potential payoff with expected return.
Understand the calculation ↗