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1 million American kids get SpaceX shares by December 31, 2027?

1 million American kids get SpaceX shares by December 31, 2027?

Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.

Provider end date 1 Jan 2028Liquidity $477Lifetime volume $58Source Polymarket

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What actually has to happen?

Original terms

A reviewed plain-language explanation is not available for these terms yet. The full provider wording is shown below.

Original resolution rules
On October 19, 2026, Elon Musk announced that next year he would give one of his SpaceX shares to every child in America. (see: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/19/elon-musk-spacex-shares-giveaway-kids.html) This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one million children in the United States have received at least one share of SpaceX stock from Elon Musk by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "child" is any individual who is under 18 years of age and resides in the United States on the date the share is received. A child who turns 18 after receiving a share will continue to count. A child will be considered to have "received" a share once at least one whole share has been transferred to and is held by or for the benefit of that child, including in a brokerage account, custodial account (such as a UTMA/UGMA account), or trust in the child's name or for the child's benefit. Announcements, pledges, registrations, sign-ups, or allocations of shares that have not yet been transferred will not qualify. Fractional shares, tokenized shares, or other synthetic exposure to SpaceX will not qualify. Shares will be considered to be "from Elon Musk" if they are distributed by Elon Musk personally or by any person or legal entity acting on his behalf or at his direction, or funded by him for this purpose, including a trust, foundation, SpaceX itself, or another company or third-party administrator implementing the distribution. Shares distributed under a program that was not initiated or funded by Elon Musk will not qualify. The equity must be in Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SpaceX). Any class or type of equity will qualify, including preferred or common stock. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

THE MARKET’S VIEW

Two outcomes. One precise question.

Yes42.5%
42.50¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout
No57.5%
57.50¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.35 / 0.5. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.

Fetched 2026-10-22T10:15:07+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-22T10:14:57.720383Z

Keep the investment thesis separate

A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.

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