INVESTMENT THESES. MEASURABLE OUTCOMES.
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Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
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| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ledger IPO closing market cap above $6B? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 13.0% | 452.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $223 | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI raise less than $30B in its IPO? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 9.0% | 655.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $218 | ↗ |
| Will Bloomberg IPO by September 30, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 19.5% | 467.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Oct 2027 | $210 | ↗ |
| Will Strava not IPO by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 7.7% | 756.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $189 | ↗ |
| Will Bloomberg IPO by June 30, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 13.5% | 1,724.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $177 | ↗ |
| Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 71.5% | 32.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $174 | ↗ |
| Will Strava’s market cap be between $5B and $7B at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 19.4% | 295.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $163 | ↗ |
| Will Strava’s market cap be between $2B and $3B at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 30.5% | 170.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $155 | ↗ |
| Will Strava’s market cap be at least $15B at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 17.5% | 331.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $144 | ↗ |
| Will Strava’s market cap be less than $2B at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 9.9% | 593.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $141 | ↗ |
| Will Strava’s market cap be between $7B and $10B at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 27.6% | 194.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $133 | ↗ |
| Will Stripe’s market cap be between $250B and $300B at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 34.0% | 146.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $117 | ↗ |
| Will Stripe’s market cap be between $450B and $500B at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 36.5% | 132.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $96 | ↗ |
| Will Stripe’s market cap be less than $150B at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 40.0% | 115.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $94 | ↗ |
| Will Stripe’s market cap be between $300B and $350B at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 36.5% | 132.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $92 | ↗ |
| Will Stripe’s market cap be at least $500B at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 37.5% | 127.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $86 | ↗ |
| Will Stripe’s market cap be between $200B and $250B at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 39.0% | 120.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $84 | ↗ |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 32.0% | 159.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $75 | ↗ |
| Will Stripe’s market cap be between $350B and $400B at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 38.0% | 124.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $75 | ↗ |
| Will Stripe’s market cap be between $150B and $200B at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 39.5% | 117.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $73 | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
GO BEYOND THE NUMBER
The condition matters
as much as the price.
Anthropic IPO
Offering price or first-day close? Know which question you’re answering.
Explore the contracts ↗02 / CORPORATE MILESTONESOpenAI IPO
Timing, valuation and no-IPO outcomes—each with its own rules.
Explore the contracts ↗03 / INVESTOR TOOLKITAnnualized, explained
Compare holding periods without confusing potential payoff with expected return.
Understand the calculation ↗