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Will Strava’s market cap be between $7B and $10B at market close on IPO day?

Strava IPO Closing Market Cap

Provider end date; confirm observation window in the rules.

Provider end date 1 Jan 2028Liquidity $133Lifetime volume $1.3kSource Polymarket

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What actually has to happen?

Original terms

A reviewed plain-language explanation is not available for these terms yet. The full provider wording is shown below.

Original resolution rules
This market will resolve based on Strava's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no Strava IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Strava’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

THE MARKET’S VIEW

Two outcomes. One precise question.

Yes27.6%
27.55¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout
No72.5%
72.45¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.005 / 0.546. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.

Fetched 2026-10-22T11:00:03+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-22T10:58:56.966531Z

Keep the investment thesis separate

A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.

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