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Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
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| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI raise between $30B and $40B in its IPO? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 4.1% | 1,351.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.2k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 10.5% | 557.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.2k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 5.8% | 985.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.1k | ↗ |
| Anthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Anthropic | 74.5% | 14.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2029 | $1.1k | ↗ |
| Will Kimi (Moonshot AI) IPO by June 30, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 72.0% | 61.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $1.1k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI raise between $90B and $100B in its IPO? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 42.2% | 106.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.1k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI raise between $40B and $50B in its IPO? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 9.4% | 627.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.1k | ↗ |
| Will DeepSeek IPO by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 61.9% | 49.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.0k | ↗ |
| Will Databricks not IPO by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 45.9% | 92.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.0k | ↗ |
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 74.5% | 28.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.0k | ↗ |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2.25T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 18.0% | 320.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $961 | ↗ |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 41.0% | 111.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $959 | ↗ |
| Will DeepSeek IPO by September 30, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 61.0% | 69.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Oct 2027 | $884 | ↗ |
| Will DeepSeek IPO by March 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 14.5% | 7,925.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Apr 2027 | $840 | ↗ |
| Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 39.0% | 120.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $840 | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 2.9% | 1,812.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $821 | ↗ |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 54.5% | 66.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $775 | ↗ |
| Ledger IPO closing market cap above $3B? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 16.5% | 352.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $757 | ↗ |
| Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $30B and $40B at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 3.3% | 1,641.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $686 | ↗ |
| Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $75B and $100B at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 4.6% | 1,218.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $680 | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
GO BEYOND THE NUMBER
The condition matters
as much as the price.
Anthropic IPO
Offering price or first-day close? Know which question you’re answering.
Explore the contracts ↗02 / CORPORATE MILESTONESOpenAI IPO
Timing, valuation and no-IPO outcomes—each with its own rules.
Explore the contracts ↗03 / INVESTOR TOOLKITAnnualized, explained
Compare holding periods without confusing potential payoff with expected return.
Understand the calculation ↗