INVESTMENT THESES. MEASURABLE OUTCOMES.
Prediction Market Screener
for Investors.
Discover the events behind your thesis—from company milestones to geopolitical turning points.
↗Research the rules.
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
THE SCREENER
Find your next research question.
| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2027? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 15.5% | 377.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $509 | ↗ |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.75% at the end of 2027? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 13.5% | 435.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $502 | ↗ |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 5.75% at the end of 2027? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 1.8% | 2,727.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $489 | ↗ |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.5% at the end of 2027? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 41.0% | 111.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $453 | ↗ |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤2.5% at the end of 2027? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 14.7% | 398.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $440 | ↗ |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2027? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 8.2% | 712.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $431 | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
GO BEYOND THE NUMBER
The condition matters
as much as the price.
Anthropic IPO
Offering price or first-day close? Know which question you’re answering.
Explore the contracts ↗02 / CORPORATE MILESTONESOpenAI IPO
Timing, valuation and no-IPO outcomes—each with its own rules.
Explore the contracts ↗03 / INVESTOR TOOLKITAnnualized, explained
Compare holding periods without confusing potential payoff with expected return.
Understand the calculation ↗