INVESTMENT THESES. MEASURABLE OUTCOMES.
Prediction Market Screener
for Investors.
Discover the events behind your thesis—from company milestones to geopolitical turning points.
↗Research the rules.
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
THE SCREENER
Find your next research question.
| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Stripe’s market cap be between $400B and $450B at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 34.5% | 143.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $70 | ↗ |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $2T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 33.5% | 149.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $65 | ↗ |
| Will Stripe not IPO by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 17.5% | 330.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $58 | ↗ |
| Will Databricks’s market cap be between $400B and $450B at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 44.0% | 98.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $32 | ↗ |
| Will Databricks’s market cap be at least $450B at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 44.0% | 98.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $30 | ↗ |
| Will Databricks’s market cap be between $250B and $300B at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 43.5% | 100.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $29 | ↗ |
| Will Databricks’s market cap be between $150B and $200B at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 44.0% | 98.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $29 | ↗ |
| Will Databricks’s market cap be between $300B and $350B at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 44.0% | 98.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $29 | ↗ |
| Will Databricks’s market cap be between $350B and $400B at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 44.0% | 98.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $28 | ↗ |
| Will Databricks’s market cap be between $200B and $250B at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 43.5% | 100.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $19 | ↗ |
| Will Databricks’s market cap be less than $150B at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 43.5% | 100.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $18 | ↗ |
Page 9 of 9
A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
GO BEYOND THE NUMBER
The condition matters
as much as the price.
Anthropic IPO
Offering price or first-day close? Know which question you’re answering.
Explore the contracts ↗02 / CORPORATE MILESTONESOpenAI IPO
Timing, valuation and no-IPO outcomes—each with its own rules.
Explore the contracts ↗03 / INVESTOR TOOLKITAnnualized, explained
Compare holding periods without confusing potential payoff with expected return.
Understand the calculation ↗