INVESTMENT THESES. MEASURABLE OUTCOMES.
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Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
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| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ledger IPO closing market cap above $3B? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 17.0% | 341.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $605 | ↗ |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 58.0% | 57.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $577 | ↗ |
| Will Bloomberg IPO by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 35.5% | 138.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $488 | ↗ |
| Will DeepSeek IPO by June 30, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 27.5% | 550.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $473 | ↗ |
| Will Bloomberg IPO by March 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 12.5% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Apr 2027 | $454 | ↗ |
| Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $40B and $50B at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 2.3% | 2,300.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $435 | ↗ |
| Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $50B and $75B at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 10.3% | 571.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $419 | ↗ |
| Ledger IPO closing market cap above $1B? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 19.3% | 296.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $378 | ↗ |
| Ledger IPO closing market cap above $4B? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 19.0% | 301.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $361 | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI raise at least $100B in its IPO? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 10.5% | 560.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $358 | ↗ |
| Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $20B and $30B at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 4.0% | 1,398.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $352 | ↗ |
| Will Strava’s market cap be between $3B and $4B at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 8.0% | 733.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $331 | ↗ |
| Ledger IPO closing market cap above $5B? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 14.5% | 404.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $329 | ↗ |
| Will Perplexity’s market cap be less than $20B at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 7.4% | 790.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $306 | ↗ |
| SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | SpaceX | 74.5% | 28.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $278 | ↗ |
| Will Strava’s market cap be between $10B and $15B at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 4.7% | 1,206.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $271 | ↗ |
| Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 38.0% | 124.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $263 | ↗ |
| Ledger IPO closing market cap above $6B? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 13.0% | 452.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $261 | ↗ |
| Ledger IPO closing market cap above $2B? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 15.6% | 375.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $256 | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI raise less than $30B in its IPO? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 9.0% | 655.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $218 | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
GO BEYOND THE NUMBER
The condition matters
as much as the price.
Anthropic IPO
Offering price or first-day close? Know which question you’re answering.
Explore the contracts ↗02 / CORPORATE MILESTONESOpenAI IPO
Timing, valuation and no-IPO outcomes—each with its own rules.
Explore the contracts ↗03 / INVESTOR TOOLKITAnnualized, explained
Compare holding periods without confusing potential payoff with expected return.
Understand the calculation ↗