Yes30.5%
Company milestones Open at last refresh
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 achieve a successful splashdown?
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?
Provider end date; confirm observation window in the rules.
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What actually has to happen?
A reviewed plain-language explanation is not available for these terms yet. The full provider wording is shown below.
Original resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Starship upper stage for the 15th Starship-Super Heavy test flight achieves a controlled splashdown in the ocean. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If SpaceX attempts to catch the Starship upper stage using the Orbital Launch Tower’s chopsticks instead of attempting an ocean splashdown, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market pertains to the 15th Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the 15th Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the 15th launch, and this market will stay open until the 15th launch has occurred. If the 15th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
A splashdown will be considered controlled if the Starship upper stage successfully re-enters Earth's atmosphere, remains intact during descent, and enters the water without breaking apart or exploding upon impact.
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
THE MARKET’S VIEW
Two outcomes. One precise question.
No69.5%
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.16 / 0.45. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-22T10:15:06+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-22T10:14:57.720383Z
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A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.
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