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Will the Fed Hike-Hike-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Provider end date; confirm observation window in the rules.

Provider end date 27 Jan 2027Liquidity $6.9kLifetime volume $1.2kSource Polymarket

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What actually has to happen?

Original terms

A reviewed plain-language explanation is not available for these terms yet. The full provider wording is shown below.

Original resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

THE MARKET’S VIEW

Two outcomes. One precise question.

Yes3.6%
3.60¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout
No96.4%
96.40¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.009 / 0.063. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.

Fetched 2026-10-22T10:15:06+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-22T10:12:58.238477Z

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