Yes43.0%
Company milestones Open at last refresh
Will the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster explode?
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?
Provider end date; confirm observation window in the rules.
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What actually has to happen?
A reviewed plain-language explanation is not available for these terms yet. The full provider wording is shown below.
Original resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the 15th Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).
If the 15th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
THE MARKET’S VIEW
Two outcomes. One precise question.
No57.0%
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.42 / 0.44. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-22T10:00:07+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-22T09:58:58.338626Z
Keep the investment thesis separate
A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.
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