Yes19.5%
Financial health Open at last refresh
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?
Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?
Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.
Contract resolution rules
Market resolves Yes if Anthropic announces bankruptcy filing intent or status by Dec 31, 2029, via official channels or credible reporting. Actual filing not required.
Conditions for a winning outcome
Anthropic announces through official or verified channels, including a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other officially representing individual or team, that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The announcement alone suffices regardless of whether or when an actual filing occurs.
Exclusions and exceptions
An announcement that does not clearly state intent to file or that bankruptcy filing has occurred does not qualify. Informal, unverified, or unauthorized statements not made through official or verified channels do not qualify. Statements from individuals or teams not officially representing Anthropic do not qualify. Actual bankruptcy filing without an announcement is not by itself sufficient.
Timing & resolution
December 31, 2029 at 11:59 PM ET. The provider end date of January 1, 2030 at 04:59 UTC is equivalent to this deadline.
Ambiguities in the rules
The rules reference a definitive consensus of credible reporting as a valid resolution source but do not define what qualifies as credible reporting or what threshold of consensus is required.
AI-assisted explanation reviewed against this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Anthropic. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
No80.5%
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.19 / 0.2. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-22T17:45:07+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-22T17:44:59.326333Z
Event contracts and stock returns
A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.
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