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Dario Amodei out as Anthropic CEO before IPO?

Dario Amodei out as Anthropic CEO before IPO?

Provider end date; confirm observation window in the rules.

Provider end date 31 Dec 2027Liquidity $1.9kLifetime volume $11Source Polymarket

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What actually has to happen?

Original terms

A reviewed plain-language explanation is not available for these terms yet. The full provider wording is shown below.

Original resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is not the Chief Executive Officer of Anthropic at the moment Anthropic shares begin trading on their first trading day. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Anthropic has not completed an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on whether Dario Amodei is the Chief Executive Officer of Anthropic at that date and time. Only Dario Amodei's status at that moment will be considered. A resignation or removal followed by a return to the position before that moment will not affect resolution, and an announced resignation or removal that has not yet taken effect will not be considered. Dario Amodei will be considered Chief Executive Officer only if he holds the Chief Executive Officer title, including as co-Chief Executive Officer. Another role, such as executive chairman, without that title will not count. Anthropic's first trading day is the first day on which Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading, as confirmed by official announcements from Anthropic and the relevant exchange. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Dario Amodei and Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

THE MARKET’S VIEW

Two outcomes. One precise question.

Yes4.8%
4.75¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout
No95.3%
95.25¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.021 / 0.074. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.

Fetched 2026-10-22T10:00:08+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-22T09:56:58.571163Z

Keep the investment thesis separate

A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.

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