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Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2027 (ET)?

In which month will Anthropic IPO?

Provider end date; confirm observation window in the rules.

Provider end date 1 Jan 2028Liquidity $12.8kLifetime volume $8.9kSource Polymarket

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What actually has to happen?

Original terms

A reviewed plain-language explanation is not available for these terms yet. The full provider wording is shown below.

Original resolution rules
This market will resolve based on the calendar month (ET) in which Anthropic's initial public offering (IPO) occurs. The resolving month will be the calendar month (ET) containing the first day on which Anthropic shares are listed and open for regular-way trading on a public securities exchange. An IPO refers to Anthropic shares becoming listed and open for trading on a public securities exchange, whether through a traditional initial public offering or a direct listing. If Anthropic goes public through a merger, acquisition, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded, including a special purpose acquisition company, this market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun. Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.

THE MARKET’S VIEW

Two outcomes. One precise question.

Yes0.4%
0.45¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout
No99.6%
99.55¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.002 / 0.007. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.

Fetched 2026-10-22T09:45:07+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-22T09:44:58.487592Z

Keep the investment thesis separate

A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.

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