Anthropic95.3%
IPOs & valuations Open at last refresh
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Provider end date; confirm observation window in the rules.
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What actually has to happen?
A reviewed plain-language explanation is not available for these terms yet. The full provider wording is shown below.
Original resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
THE MARKET’S VIEW
Two outcomes. One precise question.
OpenAI4.8%
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.948 / 0.957. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-22T09:30:08+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-22T09:28:56.979124Z
Keep the investment thesis separate
A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.
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