Yes14.5%
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Ledger IPO closing market cap above $7B?
Ledger IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
Provider end date; confirm observation window in the rules.
Contract resolution rules
Predicts whether Ledger's first-trading-day market cap exceeds $7B. Resolves No if no IPO occurs by Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Conditions for a winning outcome
The market resolves Yes if Ledger completes an IPO and its official closing market capitalization on the first trading day exceeds $7B. Market cap is total outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on that day. Resolution uses the primary exchange's official listing page; if the figure is not displayed there, another reliable source is used. An abbreviated first trading session due to a circuit breaker or half-day still resolves by that session's official closing price. If no official closing price is published for the abbreviated session, the next trading day with an official closing price is treated as the first trading day.
Exclusions and exceptions
The market resolves No if no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It also resolves No if the first-trading-day closing market cap is $7B or below, including cases where the IPO is delayed past the deadline or the closing price does not exceed the threshold.
Timing & resolution
2027-12-31T05:00:00Z (equivalent to 2027-12-31 11:59 PM ET)
Ambiguities in the rules
The rules do not define which entity's data constitutes the primary exchange's official listing page, nor what qualifies as another reliable source if the figure is absent there. The rules do not specify how outstanding shares are determined if they change between IPO pricing and the first trading day's close. The deadline is stated only in ET; the provider-end_date is given in UTC, but both represent the same cutoff.
AI-assisted explanation reviewed against this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Ledger's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Ledger’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
No85.5%
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.036 / 0.254. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-22T17:45:02+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-22T17:40:59.583794Z
Event contracts and stock returns
A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.
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