France defaults on debt by December 31, 2027?

Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.

Provider end date 1 Jan 2028Liquidity $7.9kLifetime volume $263Source Polymarket

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What actually has to happen?

Original terms

A reviewed plain-language explanation is not available for these terms yet. The full provider wording is shown below.

Original resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the French government fails to make a scheduled payment on any French government note, bond, or bill at any point between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any French sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the French Treasury (Agence France Trésor), Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.

THE MARKET’S VIEW

Two outcomes. One precise question.

Yes5.0%

5.00¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

No95.0%

95.00¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.04 / 0.06. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.

Fetched 2026-10-22T09:30:08+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-22T09:28:56.979124Z

Keep the investment thesis separate

A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.

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