Yes19.5%
Financial health Open at last refresh
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?
OpenAI announces bankruptcy by...?
Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.
Contract resolution rules
This market resolves to 'Yes' if OpenAI announces bankruptcy (filing or intent) by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, via official channels or credible reporting consensus. Otherwise, it resolves to 'No'.
Conditions for a winning outcome
The contract resolves to 'Yes' if OpenAI makes a recorded or written statement through official channels (CEO, legal, or official representatives) announcing that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety. Alternatively, a definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used to determine the announcement. The announcement suffices regardless of actual filing.
Exclusions and exceptions
The contract resolves to 'No' if no such announcement is made by the deadline. Announcements not through official channels or not confirmed by credible reporting consensus do not qualify. The actual filing of bankruptcy without an announcement does not trigger 'Yes'.
Timing & resolution
December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET (equivalent to January 1, 2030, 04:59 UTC).
Ambiguities in the rules
The rule allows a 'definitive consensus of credible reporting' as an alternative to an official announcement. The term 'definitive consensus' is not defined, which may lead to ambiguity in determining when such consensus is reached. Additionally, the requirement for the announcement to be 'recorded or written' might exclude live verbal statements that are not recorded, but this is not explicitly clarified.
AI-assisted explanation reviewed against this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents OpenAI. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
No80.5%
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.19 / 0.2. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-22T17:45:07+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-22T17:43:00.368425Z
Event contracts and stock returns
A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.
Explore more financial health →