Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.
Provider end date 1 Jul 2027Liquidity $1.5kLifetime volume $1.4kSource Polymarket
Contract resolution rules
Original terms
A reviewed plain-language explanation is not available for these terms yet. The full provider wording is shown below.
Original resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kraken shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify, the IPO must result in the company's shares being listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading. Filing an S-1 or announcing IPO intentions alone does not qualify.
If Kraken is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Kraken and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Kraken; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
Yes22.0%
22.00¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout
No78.0%
78.00¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.21 / 0.23. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.