Yes35.5%
IPOs & valuations Open at last refresh
Will Strava’s market cap be between $4B and $5B at market close on IPO day?
Strava IPO Closing Market Cap
Provider end date; confirm observation window in the rules.
Contract resolution rules
Predicts if Strava's market cap at IPO day close falls between $4B and $5B. Resolves No if no IPO by Dec 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET.
Conditions for a winning outcome
The IPO must occur, and Strava's market capitalization at the closing price on its first trading day must be between $4B and $5B. The calculation uses outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price. Resolution relies on the primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if the figure is absent. If trading is interrupted on the first day, the market uses the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no closing price is published, the next trading day with an official closing price is treated as the first day.
Exclusions and exceptions
The market resolves to No if no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It also resolves No if the IPO occurs but the closing-price market cap is below $4B or above $5B. Falling exactly between two brackets resolves to the higher bracket, so a value exactly at a boundary may still resolve Yes.
Timing & resolution
December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Equivalent UTC timestamps are treated as the same deadline.
Ambiguities in the rules
The contract does not define the exact share count or source for outstanding shares, leaving this dependent on the primary exchange or fallback source. It also does not specify how the primary exchange is chosen if Strava lists on multiple venues.
AI-assisted explanation reviewed against this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
This market will resolve based on Strava's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no Strava IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Strava’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
No64.5%
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.16 / 0.55. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-22T17:45:02+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-22T17:43:00.368425Z
Event contracts and stock returns
A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.
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