Artificial intelligence Open at last refresh
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?
Kimi K3.1 Pro: Text Arena Debut?
Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.
Contract resolution rules
Predicts whether Kimi K3.1 Pro (or its Highspeed variant, released October 23, 2026) debuts on the Arena.AI Text Leaderboard at a score of 1470 or higher, resolving based on the Score column under Text Arena | Overall with style control off.
Conditions for a winning outcome
The next Moonshot AI Kimi K3.1 Pro model (including Highspeed variant, released October 23, 2026) listed under a name containing Kimi and K3.1 is newly added to the Arena.AI Text Overall No-Style-Control Leaderboard with a non-AutoEval score of at least 1470 in the Score column. Whether the model was previously released, in beta, or otherwise available is irrelevant. The score is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar day after the model first appears. If multiple models are added the same ET date, the highest-scoring one is used. Models added on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance are not considered. The model must remain displayed at the check time.
Exclusions and exceptions
Resolves No if the qualifying model's first appearance is followed by removal before the 12:00 PM ET check, if its displayed score is below 1470, if it is marked AutoEval, if no qualifying model appears by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, or if the leaderboard remains unavailable through the seventh day after first appearance. If the leaderboard is unavailable at the initial check, resolution shifts to the first subsequent available instance; if still unavailable through seven days, it resolves No.
Timing & resolution
If a qualifying model appears, the check is at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance; if the leaderboard is unavailable then, the next subsequent available instance is used, with a hard cutoff of seven days after first appearance or June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, whichever applies first.
Ambiguities in the rules
The rules do not define what happens if the leaderboard URL is accessible but the relevant model row or Score column is missing, beyond a general unavailability fallback. They also do not specify how a qualifying model's first appearance is verified if the leaderboard history is not publicly retained.
AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.71 / 0.73. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-24T13:45:07+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-24T13:44:41.76636Z
Event contracts and stock returns
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