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Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?

Kimi K3.1 Pro: Text Arena Debut?

Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.

Provider end date 1 Jul 2027Liquidity $1.4kLifetime volume $1.3kSource Polymarket

Contract resolution rules

AI-assisted explanation

Predicts whether Kimi K3.1 Pro (or its Highspeed variant, released October 23, 2026) debuts on the Arena.AI Text Leaderboard at a score of 1470 or higher, resolving based on the Score column under Text Arena | Overall with style control off.

Conditions for a winning outcome

The next Moonshot AI Kimi K3.1 Pro model (including Highspeed variant, released October 23, 2026) listed under a name containing Kimi and K3.1 is newly added to the Arena.AI Text Overall No-Style-Control Leaderboard with a non-AutoEval score of at least 1470 in the Score column. Whether the model was previously released, in beta, or otherwise available is irrelevant. The score is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar day after the model first appears. If multiple models are added the same ET date, the highest-scoring one is used. Models added on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance are not considered. The model must remain displayed at the check time.

Exclusions and exceptions

Resolves No if the qualifying model's first appearance is followed by removal before the 12:00 PM ET check, if its displayed score is below 1470, if it is marked AutoEval, if no qualifying model appears by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, or if the leaderboard remains unavailable through the seventh day after first appearance. If the leaderboard is unavailable at the initial check, resolution shifts to the first subsequent available instance; if still unavailable through seven days, it resolves No.

Timing & resolution

If a qualifying model appears, the check is at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance; if the leaderboard is unavailable then, the next subsequent available instance is used, with a hard cutoff of seven days after first appearance or June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, whichever applies first.

Ambiguities in the rules

The rules do not define what happens if the leaderboard URL is accessible but the relevant model row or Score column is missing, beyond a general unavailability fallback. They also do not specify how a qualifying model's first appearance is verified if the leaderboard history is not publicly retained.

AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.

Original resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Moonshot AI Kimi K3.1 Pro model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be Moonshot AI's Kimi K3.1 Pro (released October 23, 2026), including its Highspeed variant, listed under a name or model identifier that includes "Kimi" and "K3.1", regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, or reasoning or effort labels. For example, Kimi K3.1 Pro, Kimi K3.1 Pro Highspeed, or kimi-k3.1-pro, including with a label such as "(Max)" or "(High)", would qualify, while other models, such as Kimi K3 (Max), Kimi K2.8 Preview, or any later Kimi version, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Outcome prices and implied probabilities

Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.

Yes72.0%
72.00¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout
No28.0%
28.00¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.71 / 0.73. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.

Fetched 2026-10-24T13:45:07+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-24T13:44:41.76636Z

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