Artificial intelligence Open at last refresh
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher?
GPT Astra 6.1+: HLE-Diamond Debut?
Provider end date; confirm observation window in the rules.
Contract resolution rules
Predicts whether the next qualifying OpenAI GPT Astra 6.1+ model added to the HLE results achieves an HLE-Diamond Accuracy of 55% or higher at the specified check time.
Conditions for a winning outcome
Resolves Yes if a qualifying GPT Astra 6.1+ model is newly added to the HLE results at agi.safe.ai and its displayed HLE-Diamond Accuracy is at least 55% at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar day after first appearance. A qualifying CAIS-published score may instead be used if the model is not displayed on the chart by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day (ET) after the first such publication; if multiple qualifying scores are published by that time, the highest is used. A qualifying score is one issued under CAIS's name that is clearly identified as overall accuracy on the full HLE-Diamond question set (1,000 questions, released September 22, 2026), without tools, at the 'high' reasoning setting. The market resolves solely on HLE-Diamond Accuracy, regardless of Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, sample-notes, or unrounded granular data. Ties among multiple qualifying models added the same day are broken by highest accuracy.
Exclusions and exceptions
Resolves No if the chart value or qualifying score is below 55%, the model is removed and not re-added before the check, no qualifying model is added by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, or the source is unavailable through the seventh day after appearance. GPT-6 Astra, tier-labeled models (e.g., GPT-5.6 Sol/Terra/Luna and successors), task-specific/modality lines (e.g., GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak, Codex, GPT Image, Realtime), and non-qualifying score types (original HLE, HLE-Rolling, reasoning max, with tools, partition scores, API-only data, Scale AI leaderboards, other evaluators, developer scores, or scores with reasonable doubt) do not count. If the Resolution Source publishes clearly erroneous data, the market may remain open up to 7 calendar days (ET) for a correction; if no correction arrives, Polymarket issues a Clarification.
Timing & resolution
Provider end date 2027-07-01T03:59:00Z; effective resolution check depends on the model's first appearance date and the 12:00 PM ET check or three-day qualifying score window, with a hard cutoff of June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Ambiguities in the rules
The source does not define what threshold or process determines whether a score meets the 'qualifying score' conditions when there is reasonable doubt about whether it qualifies. The fallback when the primary resolution source (agi.safe.ai) is unavailable references 'the first subsequent instance' without specifying which source is acceptable. The term 'sufficient to settle a Market' for erroneous-data handling is undefined. The source does not clarify how simultaneous chart display and qualifying score publication on the same day interact for determining the model's 'first appearance' date.
AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.89 / 0.9. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-23T16:00:10+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T15:58:05.90581Z
Event contracts and stock returns
A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.
Explore more artificial intelligence →