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Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between January 25 and January 31, 2027?
When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released?
Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.
Contract resolution rules
Predicts whether OpenAI releases GPT Astra 6.1+ to the general public between Jan 25 and Jan 31, 2027 (ET). Resolves Yes if a qualifying model launches publicly within that window; No otherwise. Primary resolution source is official OpenAI information, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Conditions for a winning outcome
A release qualifies if it occurs on a calendar date (ET) from Jan 25 through Jan 31, 2027, and involves an OpenAI model designated version 6.1 or higher with "Astra" in its name or identifier (any capitalization, prefixes, suffixes, or descriptors allowed). The model must be publicly accessible via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups, either clearly announced by OpenAI as generally available or explicitly labeled on OpenAI's official website as accessible.
Exclusions and exceptions
Releases outside Jan 25–Jan 31, 2027 (ET) resolve No, including any GPT Astra 6.1+ launch before Jan 25 or on/after Feb 1, 2027. GPT-6 Astra (any rollout, promotion, Pro/Fast mode, or snapshot), tier-labeled models (e.g., GPT-5.6 Sol/Terra/Luna and successors), and task-specific lines (e.g., GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak, Codex, GPT Image, Realtime) never qualify. Closed beta or private access does not qualify. Placeholder text or version names on the website that do not correspond to an actually accessible model do not qualify.
Timing & resolution
The market's provider end date is 2027-02-01T04:59:00Z. The qualifying release window is January 25 through January 31, 2027, measured by calendar date in ET. A release on Jan 31, 2027 (ET) qualifies; the provider end date is not itself the resolution window.
Ambiguities in the rules
The rules do not specify how a release occurring exactly at Jan 31 23:59 ET that becomes publicly accessible at Jan 31 23:59 ET but is formally announced after midnight ET is treated; the rules tie resolution to the calendar date (ET) on which the model is made available to the general public, but do not define "made available" as announcement time versus first public access time. The rules do not clarify whether an official OpenAI blog post naming a model as "GPT Astra 6.1" that is not yet accessible at the time of announcement counts as the release date or merely the announcement date.
AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.003 / 0.077. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-24T17:00:09+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-24T16:58:39.364457Z
Event contracts and stock returns
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