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Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between January 18 and January 24, 2027?

When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released?

Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.

Provider end date 25 Jan 2027Liquidity $563Lifetime volume $259Source Polymarket

Contract resolution rules

AI-assisted explanation

Market resolves Yes if OpenAI releases a GPT Astra 6.1+ model to the general public between Jan 18 and Jan 24, 2027 (ET). No otherwise.

Conditions for a winning outcome

A Yes resolution requires an OpenAI model designated version 6.1 or higher with "Astra" in its name or identifier (any capitalization, prefixes, suffixes). It must be publicly accessible via open beta or open rolling waitlist, clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI, or publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on OpenAI's official website. Placeholder text or labels not matching an actually accessible model do not qualify.

Exclusions and exceptions

No resolution occurs if no qualifying model is released in the window, if only a closed beta or private access exists, if the model is version 6.0 or lower (e.g., GPT-6 Astra), if it is a tier-labeled model (e.g., GPT-5.6 Sol, Terra, Luna or successors), or if it is a task-specific/modality line (e.g., GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak, Codex, GPT Image, Realtime).

Timing & resolution

2027-01-25T04:59:00Z

Ambiguities in the rules

No material ambiguity. The market resolves by ET calendar date; the provider end date in UTC corresponds exactly to ET 23:59 on Jan 24, which is the end of the window. Official information from OpenAI is the primary resolution source; credible reporting provides additional verification, with no conflict in priority.

AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.

Original resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Astra model (6.1+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome prices and implied probabilities

Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.

Yes0.4%
0.35¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout
No99.7%
99.65¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.002 / 0.005. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.

Fetched 2026-10-24T15:00:13+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-24T14:58:38.542771Z

Event contracts and stock returns

A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.

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