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Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?
North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...?
Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.
Contract resolution rules
Yes requires North Carolina to enact a qualifying statewide moratorium law or constitutional provision during the market window; otherwise No. Later nonimplementation, judicial invalidation, repeal, expiry, or a delayed effective date does not change a qualifying enactment. Resolution primarily uses official North Carolina government information, but a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Conditions for a winning outcome
The law must mandatorily prohibit or suspend approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation statewide for all new data centers, or a subset including all new facilities above 100 MW interconnection capacity per facility (requested or nameplate). Specific exemptions are allowed if prohibition remains the default. Suspension until a condition is met qualifies; a conditional trigger must be objectively determinable, not left to agency findings, certifications, or completion of its proceedings. Any lawful enactment mechanism counts, including signature, veto override, becoming law without signature, or referendum approval.
Exclusions and exceptions
Local or partial-state moratoria, incentive/exemption-certification/economic-award suspensions alone, and executive, agency, or other nonstatutory/nonconstitutional orders do not qualify. Neither do discretionary authorizations or measures that permit activity subject to restrictions rather than prohibit it by default. Passage by one or both chambers and announced intent to sign are not enactment. Text removed before enactment does not count; a provision removed by line-item veto counts only if that item’s veto is overridden. The operative text at enactment controls.
Timing & resolution
From market creation through December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET (January 1, 2029, 04:59 UTC). Enactment, not effectiveness, controls. Referendum approval counts on election day as reflected in certified results, regardless of certification or effective date.
Ambiguities in the rules
No material ambiguity is apparent. A subset defined by a lower capacity threshold can qualify if it includes all new facilities above 100 MW and meets the other requirements.
AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.26 / 0.27. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-23T13:00:10+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T12:58:05.66909Z
Event contracts and stock returns
A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.
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