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Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?
Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.
Contract resolution rules
Yes if Indiana enacts a statutory or constitutional statewide moratorium between market creation and the deadline; otherwise No. Enactment includes signature, veto override, becoming law without signature, referendum approval, or another lawful mechanism. Later nonimplementation, judicial invalidation, repeal, expiry, or a delayed effective date does not change a qualifying enactment.
Conditions for a winning outcome
The binding measure must generally suspend or prohibit approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation statewide for all new data centers, or a subset including all new facilities above 100 MW each (requested or nameplate interconnection capacity). Specific exemptions are allowed if prohibition remains the default. The provision must be mandatory on its face. Suspension until a condition is met qualifies; a conditional trigger must be objectively determinable, not deferred to agency findings, certifications, or completion of its proceedings.
Exclusions and exceptions
Executive or agency orders and other nonstatutory, nonconstitutional measures do not qualify, regardless of legal force. Neither do local or geographically limited moratoriums; suspensions only of tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards; discretionary authority to impose a moratorium; or permission subject to conditions rather than default prohibition. Legislative passage or announced intent to sign is insufficient. Text amended out before enactment, or removed by line-item veto without an override of that item, does not count. The operative text at enactment controls.
Timing & resolution
December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET (January 1, 2029, 04:59 UTC). Enactment, not effectiveness, controls. Voter-approved measures count on election day as reflected in certified results, regardless of certification or effective date.
Ambiguities in the rules
The market creation timestamp is not supplied. Official Indiana government information is the primary resolution source; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used, but “consensus” and “credible” are not defined. Coverage must include all new facilities above 100 MW; exactly 100 MW need not be included. Later expiry does not undo a qualifying enactment.
AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.29 / 0.3. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-23T13:00:10+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T12:52:04.964088Z
Event contracts and stock returns
A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.
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