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Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?
Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?
Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.
Contract resolution rules
Resolves to "Yes" if Texas enacts a law or constitutional provision establishing a qualifying statewide moratorium between market creation and the deadline; otherwise "No". Enactment means becoming law through a legally valid mechanism, not taking effect. Later nonimplementation, judicial invalidation, repeal or expiry, or a later effective date, does not change a qualifying enactment.
Conditions for a winning outcome
The measure must generally prohibit or suspend approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection or operation of all new data centers statewide, or a subset including all new facilities above 100 MW of interconnection capacity per facility, requested or nameplate. Specific exemptions are allowed if prohibition remains the default, rather than permission subject to restrictions. Suspension until a resumption condition is met qualifies. The provision must be mandatory on its face. A conditional directive qualifies only if its trigger is objectively determinable and not deferred to agency findings, certifications or completion of agency proceedings.
Exclusions and exceptions
Tax-incentive, exemption-certification or economic-development-award suspensions alone do not qualify. Neither do local or geographically limited moratoria; executive, agency or other nonstatutory/nonconstitutional measures; discretionary authorization to impose a moratorium; or conditional directives dependent on agency determinations or proceedings. Legislative passage or an announced intent to sign is insufficient. Text amended out before enactment, or removed by line-item veto without an override of that item, does not count. The operative text at enactment controls.
Timing & resolution
December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET (January 1, 2029, 04:59 UTC). Enactment, not effectiveness, must fall within the window. For voter-approved measures, use election day as reflected in certified results, regardless of later certification.
Ambiguities in the rules
No material ambiguity is apparent. Official Texas state-government information is the primary resolution source; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.3 / 0.31. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-23T13:00:10+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T12:58:05.66909Z
Event contracts and stock returns
A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.
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