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Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?
Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?
Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.
Contract resolution rules
Resolves Yes if Missouri enacts a qualifying statewide data center moratorium from market creation through the deadline; otherwise No. Enactment means becoming law, not taking effect. A later effective date, failure to implement, judicial invalidation, repeal, or expiry does not undo a qualifying enactment.
Conditions for a winning outcome
A statute or constitutional provision must mandatorily prohibit or suspend approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation statewide for all new data centers, or a subset including all new facilities above 100 MW of requested or nameplate interconnection capacity per facility. Specific exemptions are allowed if prohibition remains the default. Suspension until a condition is met qualifies. A conditional trigger must be objectively determinable, not deferred to agency findings, certifications, or completion of its proceedings. Enactment may occur by signature, veto override, becoming law without signature, voter approval, or another lawful mechanism.
Exclusions and exceptions
Suspending only tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards does not qualify. Neither do local or geographically limited moratoriums, executive or agency orders, or other nonstatutory, nonconstitutional measures. Permission subject to restrictions is not a default prohibition. Merely authorizing a discretionary moratorium is insufficient. Legislative passage or an announced intent to sign is not enactment. Text removed before enactment does not count; a line-item-vetoed provision counts only if that veto is overridden.
Timing & resolution
December 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET (January 1, 2029, 04:59 UTC). For voter-approved measures, enactment is the approval election day reflected in certified results, regardless of later certification or effectiveness.
Ambiguities in the rules
No material ambiguity is apparent. The capacity test expressly allows requested or nameplate capacity. Official Missouri state information is the primary resolution source; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.25 / 0.26. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-23T13:00:10+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T12:58:05.66909Z
Event contracts and stock returns
A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.
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