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Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?
Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium by...?
Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.
Contract resolution rules
Resolves Yes if Oklahoma enacts a law or constitutional provision establishing a qualifying statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and December 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise No. Enactment, not the effective date, controls.
Conditions for a winning outcome
Must generally prohibit or suspend approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation statewide for all new data centers, or a subset including all new facilities above 100 MW interconnection capacity (requested or nameplate). Specific exemptions are allowed if prohibition is the default. The moratorium must be mandatory on its face. A suspension until a condition is met qualifies, but a conditional trigger must be objectively determinable, not left to agency findings, certifications, or proceedings. Enactment includes signature, veto override, law without signature, or other legal mechanisms, including voter approval.
Exclusions and exceptions
Executive or agency orders and other nonstatutory, nonconstitutional measures do not qualify. Neither do local or partial-state moratoriums; suspensions only of tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards; mere discretionary authority to impose a moratorium; or permission subject to restrictions rather than a default prohibition. Passage by either or both chambers or intent to sign is insufficient. Provisions amended out before enactment or removed by line-item veto do not count unless the item veto is overridden. The operative text at enactment controls.
Timing & resolution
Deadline: December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET (January 1, 2029, 04:59 UTC). Later effectiveness, nonimplementation, judicial invalidation, repeal, or expiry do not change the result. Voter measures count on approval election day, per certified results.
Ambiguities in the rules
No material ambiguity is apparent. For voter measures, later certification or effectiveness does not change the enactment date. Official Oklahoma state government information is the primary resolution source; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.33 / 0.34. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-23T13:00:10+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T12:58:05.66909Z
Event contracts and stock returns
A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.
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