Yes0.3%
Artificial intelligence Open at last refresh
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?
Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?
Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.
Contract resolution rules
Resolves Yes if the next qualifying Anthropic Claude Haiku 4.6+ leaderboard addition has a displayed score of at least 1440 at the next-day check, or the specified outage fallback. Otherwise, resolves No. The rules specify a June 30, 2027 release deadline; the score check can occur later.
Conditions for a winning outcome
The name or identifier must include Haiku and designate version 4.6 or higher, including Haiku 5, regardless of capitalization or surrounding descriptors. It must be newly added without AutoEval; prior release or public availability is irrelevant. Use the displayed Score column in Arena.AI's Text Arena | Overall leaderboard with style control off, not underlying unrounded data. Check at noon ET the next calendar day. Among qualifying models added on the same ET date, use the highest-scoring one; exclude additions the following day. If the source is unavailable at the check, use the first subsequent available score through the end of the seventh day after first appearance.
Exclusions and exceptions
Names without Haiku, versions below 4.6 (including Haiku 4.5 rollouts, promotions and snapshots), and AutoEval-labeled entries do not qualify. An appearance does not count if the model is removed and not re-added such that it is absent at the next-day noon ET check. These exclusions do not alone force No. No results if the selected model's applicable displayed score is below 1440, the source remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day, or no qualifying model release occurs by the stated deadline.
Timing & resolution
Release deadline: June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (July 1, 03:59 UTC). Score check: noon ET the calendar day after first appearance. An outage can extend the check through the end of the seventh day after first appearance.
Ambiguities in the rules
The final cutoff refers to a qualifying model's release, while qualification elsewhere depends on a new leaderboard addition and explicitly disregards prior release timing. The rules do not clearly say whether a model released by the cutoff but first added afterward can qualify.
AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Haiku model (4.6+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Haiku" and be designated as version 4.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Haiku 4.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Haiku 5, while models whose name does not include "Haiku" or which retain a version designation below 4.6, such as Claude Haiku 4.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered.
If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
No99.8%
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.002 / 0.003. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-23T13:00:10+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T12:56:06.238052Z
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