Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?
Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.
Provider end date 1 Jan 2028Liquidity $434.4kLifetime volume $5.0mSource Polymarket
Contract resolution rules
AI-assisted explanation
Predicts whether Indiana enacts a statewide data center moratorium by Dec 31, 2027.
Conditions for a winning outcome
Yes if Indiana enacts a law or constitutional provision creating a binding statewide moratorium on new data centers (or all facilities above 100 MW) by 11:59 PM ET Dec 31, 2027. Enactment includes gubernatorial signature, veto override, becoming law without signature, or statewide referendum approval on election day. The provision must be mandatory on its face; conditions that are objectively determinable still qualify. Tax incentive suspensions, local moratoriums, discretionary authorizations, and executive orders do not qualify.
Exclusions and exceptions
No if no such statewide law or constitutional provision is enacted by the deadline. Does not qualify: suspensions limited to tax incentives or economic awards, local government moratoriums, measures enacted after Dec 31, 2027, passage by chamber only, gubernatorial intent to sign, executive orders, agency orders, or provisions removed by line-item veto without override.
Timing & resolution
11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 (equivalent to 04:59 AM UTC January 1, 2028). Resolution is based on enactment date, not effective date.
Ambiguities in the rules
The 100 MW threshold applies to interconnection capacity (requested or nameplate), but the source does not clarify whether a facility with multiple separate interconnection requests each under 100 MW that collectively exceed 100 MW would qualify under the subset criterion.
AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the State of Indiana enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A statewide moratorium on new data centers refers to a binding policy with legal force that generally prohibits or suspends the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset of data centers that includes all new data centers with an interconnection capacity above 100 MW per facility (requested or nameplate), throughout the state. Suspensions of tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards alone will not qualify, nor will a moratorium adopted by a local government or limited to part of the state. Specific exemptions (e.g., for specified applications, executed agreements, or interconnection requests) do not prevent a measure from generally applying to all new data centers, or a qualifying subset of new data centers, provided that data center approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation is prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. Conditions on the resumption or termination of a suspension do not make a measure one that permits subject to conditions; a measure that suspends approvals, permitting, construction, or interconnection until a specified condition is satisfied qualifies.
Enactment occurs when a bill becomes law under the state's constitution and laws, whether by gubernatorial signature, veto override, becoming law without signature, approval at a statewide referendum election, or any other legal mechanism by which statutes can be enacted. For an initiated or referred statute or constitutional amendment, or other voter referendum, the relevant law is considered to have been enacted on the election day on which it was approved, as reflected in the certified results, regardless of when the measure is certified or takes effect. Passage by one or both chambers, or a Governor's announced intent to sign, is not enactment.
Executive orders, agency orders, and other measures which are not statutory or constitutional do not qualify as enactment regardless of legal force. A provision removed by line-item veto is not enacted unless the veto is overridden as to that item. The operative text of the measure at enactment controls; provisions amended out before enactment do not qualify.
The moratorium provision must be mandatory on its face. A statute that merely authorizes a state agency or the Governor to impose a moratorium at their discretion does not qualify. A statute that directs suspension of approvals or interconnection upon a specified condition qualifies only if the condition is objectively determinable and is not deferred to be determined by the implementing agency's findings, certifications, or completion of its own proceedings.
This market resolves based on the date of enactment, not the effective date. Resolution will not be affected by failure to implement a law, judicial invalidation, repeal, or expiry that follows a relevant enactment, or an effective date that comes after the date of enactment.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the state government of Indiana; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
Yes14.5%
14.50¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout
No85.5%
85.50¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.14 / 0.15. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.