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Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?
Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?
Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.
Contract resolution rules
Resolves Yes if, between market creation and the deadline, Texas enacts a statute or constitutional provision establishing a qualifying statewide moratorium on new data centers; otherwise No. Enactment means becoming law, not taking effect, through signature, veto override, becoming law without signature, referendum approval, or another legal enactment mechanism.
Conditions for a winning outcome
A binding statewide measure must generally prohibit or suspend approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset including all new facilities above 100 MW interconnection capacity (requested or nameplate). Specific exemptions are allowed if prohibition remains the default, rather than permission subject to restrictions. The provision must be mandatory. A suspension until a condition is satisfied qualifies. A conditional trigger must be objectively determinable, not dependent on agency findings, certifications, or completion of its proceedings. The operative text at enactment controls.
Exclusions and exceptions
Chamber passage or a governor's intent to sign alone; executive, agency, or other nonstatutory/nonconstitutional measures; discretionary authorization to impose a moratorium; local or partial-state moratoriums; incentive, exemption-certification, or economic-development-award suspensions alone; restrictions not covering every new facility above 100 MW; provisions removed before enactment or line-item vetoed without an override. A later effective date, failure to implement, judicial invalidation, repeal, or expiry does not undo a qualifying enactment.
Timing & resolution
December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (January 1, 2028, 04:59 UTC). For voter-approved measures, enactment is approval election day as reflected in certified results, regardless of when certification or effectiveness occurs.
Ambiguities in the rules
The rules do not further define 'new data centers,' but clearly allow either coverage of all new facilities or a subset covering every new facility above 100 MW. Official Texas government information is primary; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.19 / 0.2. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-23T13:00:10+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T12:58:05.66909Z
Event contracts and stock returns
A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.
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