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Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?

Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?

Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.

Provider end date 1 Jan 2028Liquidity $18.7kLifetime volume $476.3kSource Polymarket

Contract resolution rules

AI-assisted explanation

Resolves Yes if, between market creation and the deadline, Texas enacts a statute or constitutional provision establishing a qualifying statewide moratorium on new data centers; otherwise No. Enactment means becoming law, not taking effect, through signature, veto override, becoming law without signature, referendum approval, or another legal enactment mechanism.

Conditions for a winning outcome

A binding statewide measure must generally prohibit or suspend approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset including all new facilities above 100 MW interconnection capacity (requested or nameplate). Specific exemptions are allowed if prohibition remains the default, rather than permission subject to restrictions. The provision must be mandatory. A suspension until a condition is satisfied qualifies. A conditional trigger must be objectively determinable, not dependent on agency findings, certifications, or completion of its proceedings. The operative text at enactment controls.

Exclusions and exceptions

Chamber passage or a governor's intent to sign alone; executive, agency, or other nonstatutory/nonconstitutional measures; discretionary authorization to impose a moratorium; local or partial-state moratoriums; incentive, exemption-certification, or economic-development-award suspensions alone; restrictions not covering every new facility above 100 MW; provisions removed before enactment or line-item vetoed without an override. A later effective date, failure to implement, judicial invalidation, repeal, or expiry does not undo a qualifying enactment.

Timing & resolution

December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (January 1, 2028, 04:59 UTC). For voter-approved measures, enactment is approval election day as reflected in certified results, regardless of when certification or effectiveness occurs.

Ambiguities in the rules

The rules do not further define 'new data centers,' but clearly allow either coverage of all new facilities or a subset covering every new facility above 100 MW. Official Texas government information is primary; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.

Original resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the State of Texas enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A statewide moratorium on new data centers refers to a binding policy with legal force that generally prohibits or suspends the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset of data centers that includes all new data centers with an interconnection capacity above 100 MW per facility (requested or nameplate), throughout the state. Suspensions of tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards alone will not qualify, nor will a moratorium adopted by a local government or limited to part of the state. Specific exemptions (e.g., for specified applications, executed agreements, or interconnection requests) do not prevent a measure from generally applying to all new data centers, or a qualifying subset of new data centers, provided that data center approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation is prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. Conditions on the resumption or termination of a suspension do not make a measure one that permits subject to conditions; a measure that suspends approvals, permitting, construction, or interconnection until a specified condition is satisfied qualifies. Enactment occurs when a bill becomes law under the state's constitution and laws, whether by gubernatorial signature, veto override, becoming law without signature, approval at a statewide referendum election, or any other legal mechanism by which statutes can be enacted. For an initiated or referred statute or constitutional amendment, or other voter referendum, the relevant law is considered to have been enacted on the election day on which it was approved, as reflected in the certified results, regardless of when the measure is certified or takes effect. Passage by one or both chambers, or a Governor's announced intent to sign, is not enactment. Executive orders, agency orders, and other measures which are not statutory or constitutional do not qualify as enactment regardless of legal force. A provision removed by line-item veto is not enacted unless the veto is overridden as to that item. The operative text of the measure at enactment controls; provisions amended out before enactment do not qualify. The moratorium provision must be mandatory on its face. A statute that merely authorizes a state agency or the Governor to impose a moratorium at their discretion does not qualify. A statute that directs suspension of approvals or interconnection upon a specified condition qualifies only if the condition is objectively determinable and is not deferred to be determined by the implementing agency's findings, certifications, or completion of its own proceedings. This market resolves based on the date of enactment, not the effective date. Resolution will not be affected by failure to implement a law, judicial invalidation, repeal, or expiry that follows a relevant enactment, or an effective date that comes after the date of enactment. The primary resolution source will be official information from the state government of Texas; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome prices and implied probabilities

Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.

Yes19.5%
19.50¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout
No80.5%
80.50¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.19 / 0.2. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.

Fetched 2026-10-23T13:00:10+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T12:58:05.66909Z

Event contracts and stock returns

A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.

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